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Change in the ASF entry risk into Japan as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic
  • +2
  • Katsuaki Sugiura,
  • Katsumasa Kure,
  • Takuma Kato,
  • Fumiaki Kyutoku,
  • Takeshi Haga
Katsuaki Sugiura
The University of Tokyo Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences Faculty of Agriculture
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Katsumasa Kure
Value Farm Consulting
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Takuma Kato
The University of Tokyo Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences Faculty of Agriculture
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Fumiaki Kyutoku
The University of Tokyo Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences Faculty of Agriculture
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Takeshi Haga
University of Tokyo
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Peer review status:UNDER REVIEW

24 Jun 2020Submitted to Transboundary and Emerging Diseases
25 Jun 2020Assigned to Editor
25 Jun 2020Submission Checks Completed
30 Jun 2020Reviewer(s) Assigned

Abstract

Using a model developed previously by the authors, a risk assessment was conducted to predict the change in the risk of ASF entering Japan as a result of the coronavirus pandemic in humans. The annual probability of ASF entering Japan was calculated to be 23% (90% prediction interval: 0-91%), 4.7% (0-24%) in February, 0.4% (0-2.1%) in March and 0.004% (0-0.01%) in April 2020 indicating a significant decline in the risk of ASF entry into Japan from China. The decline was attributed to a decline in the number of air travelers from China and amount of restaurant food.