Declaration (Stauning, 2022) on “invalid PCS index” is based on the following arguments: PCS index is calculated with use of incorrect “unified” PC derivation method; PCS index used in analyses is a preliminary index, which was not approved by IAGA and, therefore, it cannot be regarded as a correct index; PCN and PCS indices demonstrate, intermittently, large difference in value, which should be treated as evidence of the PCS index invalidity. The paper presents comments to these arguments. Conclusion is made that criticism of the PCS index, presented in Stauning (2022), is based on groundless arguments.

Improved knowledge of the contributing sources of uncertainty in projections of Arctic sea ice over the 21st century is essential for evaluating impacts of a changing Arctic environment. Here, we consider the role of internal variability, model structure and emissions scenario in projections of Arctic sea-ice area (SIA) by using six single model initial-condition large ensembles and a suite of models participating in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. For projections of September Arctic SIA change, internal variability accounts for as much as 40-60% of the total uncertainty in the next decade, while emissions scenario dominates uncertainty toward the end of the century. Model structure accounts for approximately 60-70% of the total uncertainty by mid-century and declines to 30% at the end of the 21st century during the summer months. For projections of wintertime Arctic SIA change, internal variability contributes as much as 50-60% of the total uncertainty in the next decade and impacts total uncertainty at longer lead times when compared to the summertime. Model structure contributes most of the remaining uncertainty with emissions scenario contributing little to the total uncertainty during the winter months. At regional scales, the contribution of internal variability can vary widely and strongly depends on the month and region. For wintertime SIA change in the GIN and Barents Seas, internal variability contributes approximately 60-70% to the total uncertainty over the coming decades and remains important much longer than in other regions. We further find that the relative contribution of internal variability to total uncertainty is state-dependent and increases as sea ice volume declines. These results demonstrate the need to improve the representation of internal variability of Arctic SIA in models, which is a significant source of uncertainty in future projections.

We present a very high-resolution (400 m) operational air quality forecasting system developed to alert citizens of Delhi and the National Capital Region (NCR) about acute air pollution episodes. Such a high-resolution system has been developed for the first time and is evaluated during October 2019-February 2020. The system assimilates near real time aerosol observations from in situ and space-borne observations in the WRF-Chem model to produce a 72-h forecast every day in a dynamical downscaling framework. The assimilation of aerosol optical depth and surface PM 2.5 observations improves the initial condition for surface PM 2.5 by about 45 µg/m 3 (about 50%). The accuracy of the forecast degrades slightly with time as mean bias increases from +2.5 µg/m 3 on the first day to-17 µg/m 3 on the third day of forecast. Our forecasts are found to be very capable both for PM 2.5 concentration and unhealthy/ very unhealthy air quality indices categories. 2

Estimates of changes in the frequency or height of contemporary extreme sea levels (ESLs) under various climate change scenarios are often used by climate and sea level scientists to help communicate the physical basis for societal concern regarding sea-level rise. Changes in ESLs (i.e., the hazard) are often represented using various metrics and indicators that, when anchored to salient impacts on human systems and the natural environment, provide useful information to policy makers, stakeholders, and the general public. While changes in hazards are often anchored to impacts at local scales, aggregate global summary metrics generally lack the context of local exposure and vulnerability that facilitates translating hazards into impacts. Contextualizing changes in hazards is also needed when communicating the timing of when projected ESL frequencies cross critical thresholds, such as the year in which ESLs higher than the design height benchmark of protective infrastructure (e.g., the 100-yr water level) are expected to occur within the lifetime of that infrastructure. We present specific examples demonstrating the need for such contextualization using a simple flood exposure model, local sea-level rise projections, and population exposure estimates for 414 global cities. We suggest regional and global climate assessment reports integrate global, regional, and local perspectives on coastal risk to address hazard, vulnerability and exposure simultaneously.

Through the PolarTREC program that pairs US educators with field researchers in polar regions, our team has been collaborating on K-12 and undergraduate curriculum development and outreach activities on Arctic amplification of climate change. We have created new lesson plans and activities focused on how organic carbon from thawing permafrost in the Arctic is turned into carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas that amplifies climate change. This presentation will cover our collaboration to bring this knowledge and experience to high school science students through classroom activities and projects. The focus will be laboratory activities designed for the chemistry classroom: use of spectrophotometry to assess degree of photobleaching in organic samples and evaluation of data from high resolution mass spectrometry to characterize complex organic mixtures. We will also review lessons learned from our efforts to promote enthusiasm for polar science within the general public and discuss the benefits of the PolarTREC program to researchers, educators, students, and the public.

The atmospheric aerosol dynamics model (AADM) has been widely used in both comprehensive air quality model systems and chemical transport modeling from road to global scales. The AADM consists of the Smoluchowski coagulation equation (SCE) which describes the atmospheric aerosol size growth due to coagulation. The numerical solution to the SCE undergoing Brownian coagulation in the free molecular regime is a direct challenge because of a stumbling block for the kernel to be expressed by an equivalent linear expression and a predefined lognormal size distribution, which is inconsistent with aerosols having bimodal or multimodal size distribution. Thus, a new mathematical method for solving the SCE without the strong assumption of log-normal size distribution is proposed and developed. This method is verified with a referenced sectional method (SM) with excellent agreement. The accuracy of the method approaches closely to the TEMOM, but overcomes the limitation of the classical log MOM. The computational time of this scheme is largely reduced when comparing to the SM. The new method is successfully implemented to reveal the formation and growth of secondary particles emitted from the vehicle exhaust tailpipe. It is surprisingly found that the formation of new particles only appears in the interface region of the turbulent exhaust jet which is very close to the tailpipe exit, while there is no new particle formation in the strong mixture along the downstream. The new method is finally verified to be an efficient and reliable numerical scheme for studying atmospheric aerosol dynamics.

During the past 25 years, altimetric observations of the ocean surface from space have been mapped to provide two dimensional sea surface height (SSH) fields which are crucial for scientific research and operational applications. The SSH fields can be reconstructed from conventional altimetric data using temporal and spatial interpolation. For instance, the standard DUACS products are created with an optimal interpolation method which is effective for both low temporal and low spatial resolution. However, the upcoming next-generation SWOT mission will provide very high spatial resolution but with low temporal resolution. The present paper makes the case that this temporal-spatial discrepancy induces the need for new advanced mapping techniques involving information on the ocean dynamics. An algorithm is introduced, dubbed the BFN-QG, that uses a simple data assimilation method, the back-and-forth nudging, to interpolate altimetric data while respecting quasigeostrophic dynamics. The BFN-QG is tested in an observing system simulation experiments and compared to the DUACS products. The experiments consider as reference the high-resolution numerical model simulation NATL60 from which are produced realistic data: four conventional altimetric nadirs and SWOT data. In a combined nadirs and SWOT scenario, the BFN-QG substantially improves the mapping by reducing the root-mean-square errors and increasing the spectral effective resolution by 40km. Also, the BFN-QG method can be adapted to combine large-scale corrections from nadirs data and small-scale corrections from SWOT data so as to reduce the impact of SWOT correlated noises and still provide accurate SSH maps.

Ionospheric Faraday rotation distorts satellite radar observations of the Earth's surface. While its impact on radiometric observables is well understood, the errors in repeat-pass InSAR observations and hence in deformation analysis are largely unknown. Because Faraday rotation cannot rigorously be compensated for in non-quad-pol systems, it is imperative to determine the magnitude and nature of the deformation errors. Focusing on distributed targets at L-band, we assess the errors for a range of land covers using airborne observations with simulated Faraday rotation. We find that the deformation error may reach 2 mm in the co-pol channels over a solar cycle. It can exceed 5 mm for intense solar maxima. The cross-pol channel is more susceptible to severe errors. We identify the leakage of polarimetric phase contributions into the interferometric phase as a dominant error source. The polarimetric scattering characteristics induce a systematic dependence of the Faraday-induced deformation errors on land cover and topography. Also their temporal characteristics, with pronounced seasonal and quasi-decadal variability, predispose these systematic errors to be misinterpreted as deformation. While the relatively small magnitude of 1-2 mm is of limited concern in many applications, the persistence on semi- to multi-annual time scales compels attention when long-term deformation is to be estimated with millimetric accuracy. Phase errors induced by uncompensated Faraday rotation constitute a non-negligible source of bias in interferometric deformation measurements.

The joint probability distribution of streamwise particle hop distance, lateral particle hop distance, and travel time constrains the relationships between topographic change and sediment transport at the granular scale. Previous studies have investigated the ensemble characteristics of particle motions over plane-bed topography, however it is unclear whether reported distributions remain valid when bedforms are present. Here, we present measurements of particle motion over bedform topography obtained in a laboratory flume and compare these to particle motions over plane-bed topography with otherwise similar conditions. We find substantial differences in particle motion in the presence of bedforms that are relevant to macroscopic models of sediment transport. Most notably, bedforms increase the standard deviation of streamwise and lateral hop distances relative to the mean streamwise hop distance. This implies that bedforms increase the streamwise and lateral diffusion lengths and, equivalently, increase diffusive-like fluxes.

In atmospheric modeling, superparameterization has gained popularity as a technique to improve cloud and convection representations in large scale models by coupling them locally to cloud-resolving models. We show how the different representations of cloud water in the local and the global models in superparameterization lead to a suppression of cloud advection and ultimately to a systematic underrepresentation of the cloud amount in the large scale model. We demonstrate this phenomenon in a regional superparameterization experiment with the global model OpenIFS coupled to the local model DALES (the Dutch Atmospheric Large Eddy Simulation), as well as in an idealized setup, where the large-scale model is replaced by a simple advection scheme. To mitigate the problem of suppressed cloud advection, we propose a scheme where the spatial variability of the local model’s total water content is enhanced in order to achieve the correct cloud condensate amount.

Volcano deformation monitoring is fundamental to detect pressurizations of magma bodies and forecasting any ensuing eruptions. Analytical and quasi-analytical solutions for pressurized cavities are routinely used to constrain volcano deformation sources through inversion of surface displacement data. Due to their computational efficiency, such solutions enable a thorough exploration of the parameter space and thereby provide insight into the physics of magma-rock interaction. Developing more general deformation models can help us better characterize subsurface magma storage. We develop quasi-analytical solutions for the surface deformation field due to the pressurization of a finite (triaxial) ellipsoidal cavity in a half-space. The solution is in the form of a non-uniform distribution of triaxial point sources within the cavity. The point sources have the same aspect ratio, determined by the cavity shape, while their strengths and spacing are determined in an adaptive manner, such that the net point-source potency per unit volume is uniform. We validate and compare our solution with analytical and numerical solutions. We provide computationally-efficient MATLAB codes tailored for source inversions. This solution opens the possibility of exploring the geometry of shallow magma chambers for potential deviations from axial symmetry.

GPS observations of ocean tide loading displacements can help infer the regional anelastic properties of the asthenosphere. We estimate M2 ocean tide loading displacements at 170 GPS sites in New Zealand and compare these to modeled values using a range of numerical tide and radially symmetric (1D) elastic and anelastic Earth models. Regardless of the model combination we are unable to reduce the strong spatial coherence of the M2 residuals across the North Island where they reach 0.4 mm (2%). The best fit in the North Island is obtained when combining the FES2014b tide model with spatially-variable ocean density and water compressibility, and the STW105 Earth model. The residuals exhibit a change of ~0.3 mm in magnitude between the Taupo Volcanic Zone and the east coast (~100 km), suggesting that this region’s laterally-varying, shallow rheological structure may need to be considered to explain these observations.

Gravity fluctuations produced by ambient seismic fields are predicted to limit the sensitivity of the next-generation, gravitational-wave detector Einstein Telescope at frequencies below 20 Hz. The detector will be hosted in an underground infrastructure to reduce seismic disturbances and associated gravity fluctuations. Additional mitigation might be required by monitoring the seismic field and using the data to estimate the associated gravity fluctuations and to subtract the estimate from the detector data, a technique called coherent noise cancellation. In this paper, we present a calculation of correlations between surface displacement of a seismic field and the associated gravitational fluctuations using the spectral-element SPECFEM3D Cartesian software. The model takes into account the local topography at a candidate site of the Einstein Telescope at Sardinia. This paper is a first demonstration of SPECFEM3D's capabilities to provide estimates of gravitoelastic correlations, which are required for an optimized deployment of seismometers for gravity-noise cancellation.

Volcanogenic tsunami and wave hazard remains less understood than that of other tsunami sources. Volcanoes can generate waves in a multitude of ways, including subaqueous explosions. Recent events, including a highly explosive eruption at Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai and subsequent tsunami in January 2022, have reinforced the necessity to explore and quantify volcanic tsunami sources. We utilise a non-hydrostatic multilayer numerical method to simulate 20 scenarios of sublacustrine explosive eruptions under Lake Taupō, New Zealand, across five locations and four eruption sizes. Waves propagate around the entire lake within 15 minutes, and there is a minimum explosive size required to generate significant waves (positive amplitudes incident on foreshore of >1 m) from the impulsive displacement of water from the eruption itself. This corresponds to a mass eruption rate of 5.8x10^7 kg s^-1, or VEI 5 equivalent. Inundation is mapped across five built areas and becomes significant near shore when considering only the two largest sizes, above VEI 5, which preferentially impact areas of low-gradient run-up. In addition, novel hydrographic output is produced showing the impact of incident waves on the Waikato river inlet draining the lake, and is potentially useful for future structural impact analysis. Waves generated from these explosive source types are highly dispersive, resulting in hazard rapidly diminishing with distance from the source. With improved computational efficiency, a probabilistic study could be formulated and other, potentially more significant, volcanic source mechanisms should be investigated.

Using the method of process-oriented hydrodynamic modelling, this work investigates the dispersal of particles in stratified fluids on continental margins. The focus is placed on steady-state density distributions that are governed by an advective-diffusive balance. In this case, particles can still be advected across isopycnal surfaces, given that turbulent fluctuations do generally not offset the advective displacement of a particle. The validity of this fundamental principle is demonstrated here with the diapycnal upslope sediment transport in a bottom Ekman layer that forms under a stratified geostrophic slope current. Similarly, this study demonstrates that interaction between slope currents with a submarine channel can facilitate a continuous diapycnal upslope flux of particles, confined to the lowermost 10-20 m of the water column. Velocity anomalies that facilitate this upslope sediment flux are the signature of standing topographic Rossby waves, that can only develop for slope currents that are left-bounded (right-bounded) by shallower water in the northern (southern) hemisphere. Findings of sensitivity studies confirm the existence of up-channel flows for a wide range of parameter values. Under the assumption that particles remain suspended in the water column, the inclusion of gravitational settling significantly increases the up-channel sediment flux. Sediment settling operates to trap particles close to the seafloor within the core of bottom-intensified up-channel flow. The author postulates that this mechanism plays an important role in biogeochemical cycles at continental margins.

The forecasting of local GIC effects has largely relied on the forecasting of dB/dt as a proxy and, to date, little attention has been paid to directly forecasting the geoelectric field or GICs themselves. We approach this problem with machine learning tools, specifically recurrent neural networks or LSTMs by taking solar wind observations as input and training the models to predict two different kinds of output: first, the geoelectric field components Ex and Ey; and second, the GICs in specific substations in Austria. The training is carried out on the geoelectric field and GICs modelled from 26 years of one-minute geomagnetic field measurements, and results are compared to GIC measurements from recent years. The GICs are generally predicted better by an LSTM trained on values from a specific substation, but only a fraction of the largest GICs are correctly predicted. This model had a correlation with measurements of around 0.6, and a root-mean-square error of 0.7 A. The probability of detecting mild activity in GICs is around 50%, and 15% for larger GICs.

The Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) is one of the dominant sources of air pollution worldwide. During winter, the variations in planetary boundary layer (PBL) height, driven by a strong radiative thermal inversion, affect the regional air pollution dispersion. To date, measurements of aerosol-water vapour interactions, especially cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activity, are limited in the Indian sub-continent, causing large uncertainties in the radiative forcing estimates of aerosol-cloud interactions. We present the results of a one-month field campaign (February-March 2018) in the megacity, Delhi, a significant polluter in the IGP. We measured the composition of fine particulate matter (PM1) and size-resolved CCN properties over a wide range of water vapour supersaturations. The analysis includes PBL modelling, backward trajectories, and fire spots to elucidate the influence of PBL and air mass origins on the aerosols. The aerosol properties depended strongly on the PBL height, and a simple power-law fit could parameterize the observed correlations of PM1 mass, aerosol particle number, and CCN number with PBL height, indicating PBL induced changes in aerosol accumulation. The low inorganic mass fractions, low aerosol hygroscopicity and high externally mixed weakly CCN-active particles under low PBL height (<100 m) indicated the influence of the PBL on aerosol aging processes. In contrast, aerosol properties did not depend strongly on air mass origins or wind direction, implying that the observed aerosol and CCN are from local emissions. An error function could parameterize the relationship between CCN number and supersaturation throughout the campaign.

In calculating solar radiation, climate models make many simplifications, in part to reduce computational cost and enable climate modeling, and in part from lack of understanding of critical atmospheric information. Whether known errors or unknown errors, the community’s concern is how these could impact the modeled climate. The simplifications are well known and most have published studies evaluating them, but with individual studies it is difficult to compare. Here we collect a wide range of such simplifications in either radiative transfer modeling or atmospheric conditions and assess potential errors within a consistent framework on climate-relevant scales. We build benchmarking capability around a solar heating code (Solar-J) that doubles as a photolysis code for chemistry and can be readily adapted to consider other errors and uncertainties. The broad classes here include: use of broad wavelength bands to integrate over spectral features; scattering approximations that alter phase function and optical depths for clouds and gases; uncertainty in ice-cloud optics; treatment of fractional cloud cover including overlap; and variability of ocean surface albedo. We geographically map the errors in W m-2 using a full climate re-creation for January 2015 from a weather forecasting model. For many approximations assessed here, mean errors are ~2 W m-2 with greater latitudinal biases and are likely to affect a model’s ability to match the current climate state. Combining this work with previous studies, we make priority recommendations for fixing these simplifications based on both the magnitude of error and the ease or computational cost of the fix.

The present work is part of a greater research project aiming at creating knowledge-base for the future managerial plans dedicated to the protection of caves heritage in the Correntes Basin (3904 km 2) located in the central Brazil. Here, a GIS-based relief compartment mapping of the area is done using satellite images, geological map and cave location map as input data layers. As a result four geomorphological domains were identified as i) lowlands (282 km 2) with a base-level in silicates and carbonates, ii) the karst terrains (994 km 2) which were developed in carbonates trapped by siltstone lenses iii) the talus (1483 km 2) having colluvial and alluvial units deposited by the Urucuia escarpment retreat and iv) the highlands (1143.7 km 2) developed over the sandstone of the Urucuia Group. The intersection of landforms and geological maps resulted in two abrupt contacts, the first between lowland and karst terrains, and second between the talus and highlands which formed canyon and escarpment, respectively. Two types of the cave systems are proposed in the region as superior/vadose that collect floods from hillslopes and deep epigene fluvio-karst.

In northern Fennoscandia, semi-alluvial boulder-bed channels with coarse glacial legacy sediment are abundant, and due to widespread anthropogenic manipulation during timber-floating, unimpacted reference reaches are rare. The landscape context of these semi-alluvial rapids— with numerous mainstem lakes that buffer high flows and sediment connectivity in addition to a regional low sediment yield— contribute to low amounts of fine sediment and incompetent flows to transport boulders. To determine the morphodynamics of semi-alluvial rapids and potential self-organization of sediment with multiple high flows, a flume experiment was designed and carried out to mimic conditions in semi-alluvial rapids in northern Fennoscandia. Two slope setups (2% and 5%) were used to model a range of flows (Q1 (summer high flow), Q2, Q10 & Q50) in a 8 x 1.1 m flume with a sediment distribution analogous to field conditions; bed topography was measured using structure-from-motion photogrammetry after each flow to obtain DEMs. No classic steep coarse-bed channel bedforms (e.g., step-pools) developed. However, similarly to boulder-bed channels with low relative submergence, at Q10 and Q50 flows, sediment deposited upstream of boulders and scoured downstream. Because the Q50 flow was not able to re-work the channel by disrupting grain-interlocking from preceding lower flows, transporting boulders, or forming channel-spanning boulders, the channel-forming discharge is larger than the Q50. These results have implications for restoration of gravel spawning beds in northern Fennoscandia and highlight the importance of large grains in understanding channel morphodynamics.

This article is composed of three independent commentaries about the state of ICON principles (Goldman et al., 2021) in the AGU section Paleoclimatology and Paleoceanography (P&P), and a discussion on the opportunities and challenges of adopting them. Each commentary focuses on a different topic: (Section 2) Global collaboration, technology transfer and application, reproducibility, and data sharing and infrastructure; (Section 3) Local knowledge, global gain: improving interactions within the scientific community and with locals, indigenous communities, stakeholders, and the public; (Section 4) Field, experimental, remote sensing, and real-time data research and application. P&P projects can better include ICON principles by directly incorporating them into research proposals. A promising way to overcome the challenges of interdisciplinarity and integration is to foster networking, which will advance our research discipline through the application of ICON.

The Arctic Ocean receives a large loading of dissolved organic matter (DOM) from its catchment and shelf sediments, which can be traced across much of the basin. This signature can be used as a tracer of water mass circulation. On the shelf seas, the combination of freshwater loading from rivers and ice formation modify water mass densities and mixing considerably. These waters are the source of the halocline layer that covers much of the Arctic ocean. Our knowledge of the origins, formation and maintenance of the halocline has mostly arisen from CTD profiles and chemical tracers such as oxygen stable isotopes and inorganic nutrients, but the halocline also contains elevated levels of DOM (DOM). Here we demonstrate how this can be used as a tracer and help improve our understanding of ocean circulation. DOM fluoresce can be measured using in-situ fluorometers and mounted on autonomous platforms these can provide high spatial resolution measurements. Here we present data derived from several Ice Tethered Profilers. The data offer a unique spatial coverage of the distribution of DOM in the surface 800m below Arctic ice. Water mass analysis using temperature, salinity and DOM fluorescence, clearly distinguishs the halocline contribution of Siberian terrestrial DOM and marine DOM from the Chuckchi shelf. The findings offer a new approach to trace the distribution of Pacific waters and its export from the Arctic Ocean. Our results indicate the potential to extend the approach to fraction freshwater contributions from, sea ice melt, riverine discharge and Pacific water.

Narrow Bipolar Events (NBEs) are powerful radio emissions from thunderstorms which have been recently associated with blue optical flashes on cloud tops and attributed to extensive streamer electrical discharges named fast breakdown. Combining data obtained from a thunderstorm over South China by the space-based Atmosphere Space Interactions Monitor (ASIM), the Vaisala GLD360 global lightning network and very low frequency (VLF)/low frequency (LF) radio detectors, here we report and analyze for the first time the optical emissions of Blue LUminous Events (BLUEs) associated with negative NBEs and located at the top edge of a thundercloud. These emissions are weakly affected by scattering from cloud droplets, allowing us to estimate the source extension and optical energy involved in the process. The optical energy in the 337-nm band emitted by fast breakdown is about 10^4 J, which involves around 10^9 streamer initiation events.

We identified anomalously warm sea surface temperature (SST) events during the 40-year period 1980–2019 near a major upwelling center in the Chile-Peru Current System, using the fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis and focusing on time scales of 10 days to 6 months. Extreme warm SST anomalies on these time scales mostly occurred in the austral summer, December through February, with spatial scales of 1000s of km. By compositing over the 37 most extreme warm events, we estimated terms in a heat budget for the ocean surface mixed layer at the times of strongest warming preceding the events. The net surface heat flux anomaly is too small to explain the anomalous warming, even when allowing for uncertainty in mixed-layer depth. The composite mean anomaly of wind stress during the 37 anomalous warming periods has a spatial pattern similar to the resulting warm SST anomalies, analogous to previous studies in the California Current System. The weakened surface wind stress suggests reduced entrainment of cold water from below the mixed layer. Within 100-200 km of the coast, the typical upwelling-favorable wind stress curl decreases, suggesting reduced upwelling of cold water. In a 1000-km area of anomalous warming offshore, the typical downwelling-favorable wind stress curl also decreases, implying reduced downward Ekman pumping, which would allow mixed-layer shoaling and amplify the effect of the positive climatological summertime net surface heat flux.